The Great Prognosticator

Well, primary election day is upon us here in Monroe County, Mich. and there are quite a few interesting races at hand. Those of you who know me marvel at my past ability to predict the winners and losers.
So here we go. Don't forget, you read it here first. We'll tally up the real results later in the week and see what my prediction record is.

State Rep., 56th District:
The Republican primary for this seat could be closer than many people think. It pits John Manor, who already lost one bid for this seat, against political newcomer Jean Dahm. Dahm doesn't have the annointing of the Republican fixers in the county, but has run a spirited campaign. She deserves to win the election, but sadly to say, cronyism and hypocrity will win in the name of JOHN MANOR.

State Sen., 17th District:
This Republican contest pits former State Rep. Randy Richardville, who was term-limited, against Milan Mayor Owen Diaz. Diaz is nice guy with great ideas, but nice guys finish last. It should be a cakewalk for RICHARDVILLE.

Monroe County Commissioner, Dist. 3:
This is a big four-way race between Democrats Jeff Blanchett, Jan Jay, Al Potratz and James Vaslo. Vaslo was appointed to fill an unexpired term left vacant by the death of Tom Mell. He was appointed for a reason. He's bright and articulate and hauls the water for mainstream Democrats. Everyone else is a nobody or a pain in the ass. The primary will go to VASLO.

Monroe County Commissioner, Dist. 4:
Incumbent Democrat Floreine Mentel is being challenged by Pat Kosanovich. Kosanovich has the greater intellect. This is like a race between a Mustang Cobra GT and a 1994 Olds Cutlass. But in politics the race is rarely to the swift. Mentel has a big schmooze margin built up over the years and a lock on the 4H vote. Kosanovich is well-respected and will get the hospital vote. But she doesn't have the numbers. She may not be a mental giant, but Floreine's a MENTEL giant at the polls.

Monroe County Commissioner District 5:
Incumbent Bill Sisk faces a challenge from Democrat Patrick Miller. Sisk has been criticized for using his county-issued cell phone for personal business, but the voters still will call for SISK.

Monroe County Commissioner District 7:
Republican incumbent Randy Ansel goes nose-to-nose with former deputy Mike Davison. Ansel is patron saint of the county's hidebound, farmbound and religious right. Davison is know throughout the county, but the whole county doesn't vote for him in this race. Besides, he's known as too much of a shit-disturber. The voters will give their blessings to ANSEL.
On the Democratic side, John Fowler is going up against Neil Helfrich. Fowler is an old LaSalle guy who's been a cog in the fire department. Helfrich is a former deputy turned car salesman. Helfrich is probably looking for some county bennies in exchange for a pro-law enforcement commitment on the board. This race is for the birds, and the winner will be a FOWLER.

Monroe County Commissioner, District 8:
Connie Veliquette, a former Bedford Schools secretary, is up against former Schools Supt. and incumbent Goebel. If you take away the law enforcement values -- Goebel has sparred with the sheriff department and Veliquette's son is a deputy -- the winner of this Republican primary still will be VELIQUETTE.

Monroe County Commissioner, District 9:
Former Bedford Township Supervisor LaMar Frederick goes up against Aaron Simonton in this Republican contest. If the district represented Monroe and it was a Democratic race, Simonton would win it hands down. Simonton is as much a Republican as Hilary Clinton and he doesn't have the constituency that Frederick had as supervisor. The voters will remember FREDERICK when they vote.

A COUPLE OF BONUS PREDICTIONS -- In Erie Township, Frey, the Darth Vader of south county politics, will lose to GRODI.
The Bedford Police millage will PASS.